Capacity of Thailand to contain an emerging influenza pandemic.

Southeast Asia will likely be the epicenter of the next influenza pandemic. To determine whether health system resources in Thailand are sufficient to contain an emerging pandemic, we mapped health system resources in 76 provinces. We used 3 prepandemic scenarios of clustered cases and determined resource needs, availability, and gaps. We extended this analysis to a scenario of a modest pandemic and assumed that the same standards of clinical care would be required. We found that gaps exist in many resource categories, even under scenarios in which few cases occur. Such gaps are likely to be profound if a severe pandemic occurs. These gaps exist in infrastructure, personnel and materials, and surveillance capacity. Policy makers must determine whether such resource gaps can realistically be closed, ideally before a pandemic occurs. Alternatively, explicit assumptions must be made regarding allocation of scarce resources, standards of care, and priority setting during a pandemic.

Risk factors for shigellosis in Thailand.

OBJECTIVES: To assess the potential risk factors for shigellosis including housefly density. METHODS: A matched case-control study to investigate potential risk factors for shigellosis was conducted in a semi-urban area, Kaengkhoi District, Saraburi Province, central Thailand. Shigella cases were ascertained from a two-year population-based surveillance study detecting diarrhea and shigellosis in the area. The study evaluated a wide range of exposures, which were assessed by odds ratios (OR) adjusted for proxy markers of socioeconomic status: family income, and type of residence, using conditional logistic regression analysis. RESULTS: Hygiene behaviors such as regular hand washing (p<0.05), a clean environment surrounding the household (p<0.001), and the availability of water to flush the toilet (p=0.08) were associated with a reduced risk for shigellosis in the multivariate model. In contrast factors indicating a lower than average socioeconomic status, such as having to rent instead of owning one's housing (p<0.001) and a low family income (p<0.01) were associated with an increased risk for shigellosis. For children, breastfeeding showed a strong protective effect in reducing the risk of shigellosis (p<0.01). Prior to adjustment for environmental factors, fly density in the kitchen area was associated with an increased risk of shigellosis (p<0.01). CONCLUSIONS: We found a correlation between socioeconomic status and the risk for shigellosis. To reduce shigellosis in this setting, we recommend interventions focused on three aspects: improved water supply and sanitation (especially latrines and garbage disposal) including fly control, health education on hand washing, and the promotion of breastfeeding.

Estimating the burden of shigellosis in Thailand: 36-month population-based surveillance study.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate incidence of shigellosis in the Kaengkhoi district, Saraburi Province, Thailand. METHODS: Population-based surveillance of shigellosis based in treatment centres. The detected rates of treated shigellosis were corrected for the number of cases missed due to the low sensitivity of microbiological culture methods and participants' use of health-care providers not participating in the study. FINDINGS: The overall uncorrected incidence of shigellosis was 0.6/1000 population per year (95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.5-0.8). The unadjusted incidence of treated shigellosis was highest among children less than 5 years old (4/1000 children per year; 95% CI = 3-6) and significantly lower among people aged > 5 years (0.3/1000 population per year; 95% CI = 0.2-0.5; P < 0.001). Adjusting for cases likely to be missed as a result of culture and surveillance methods increased estimates approximately five times. The majority of Shigella isolates (122/146; 84%) were S. sonnei; the rest were S. flexneri. Of the 22 S. flexneri isolates, the three most frequently encountered serotypes were 2a (36%), 1b (23%) and 3b (28%). A total of 90-95% of S. sonnei and S. flexneri isolates were resistant to tetracycline and co-trimoxazole. In contrast to S. sonnei isolates, more than 90% of the S. flexneri isolates were also resistant to ampicillin and chloramphenicol (P < 0.0001). CONCLUSION: Estimates of incidence of Shigella infection in the community are 10-fold to 100-fold greater than those found from routine government surveillance. The high prevalence of Shigella strains resistant to multiple antibiotics adds urgency to the development of a vaccine to protect against shigellosis in this region of Thailand.

Preferences for treatment of diarrhoea and dysentery in Kaengkhoi district, Saraburi province, Thailand.

To estimate the proportion of cases missed in a passive surveillance study of diarrhoea and dysentery at health centres and hospitals in Kaengkhoi district, Saraburi province, Thailand, a community-based cluster survey of treatment-seeking behaviours was conducted during 21-23 June 2002. Interviews were conducted at 224 households among a study population of 78,744. The respondents reported where they sought care for diarrhoea and dysentery in children aged less than five years and adults aged over 15 years. Health centres or hospitals were the first treatment choice for 78% of children with dysentery (95% confidence interval [CI] 63-94%), 64% of children with diarrhoea (95% CI 54-74%), 61% of adults with dysentery (95% CI 40-82%), and 35% of adults with diarrhoea (95% CI 17-54%). A high degree of heterogeneity in responses resulted in a relatively large design effect (D=3.9) and poor intra-cluster correlation (rho=0.3). The community survey suggests that passive surveillance estimates of disease incidence will need to be interpreted with caution, since this method will miss nearly a quarter of dysentery cases in children and nearly two-thirds of diarrhoea cases in adults.